Month: March 2020

Shandong Gold (600547) First Coverage Report: Industry Leaders Rise

Shandong Gold (600547) First Coverage Report: Industry Leaders Rise

A strong and steadily expanding industry leader.

The company integrates gold “exploration, mining, selection, smelting, and sales” in one business. Since its establishment, relying on the alternative background of the major shareholder Shandong Gold Group, it has focused on deepening the main industry and gradually developing into a leading company in the domestic gold industry.

In 2017, it acquired a 50% interest in the Beladero gold mine in South America, successfully taking the pace of overseas expansion, and also making up a good foundation for the implementation of the subsequent internationalization strategy.

In 2018, the company’s mineral gold output was nearly 40 tons, ranking first among the listed companies in the country. The annual output of mineral gold at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan gradually increased to about 50 tons.

Excellent resource endowment and outstanding cost advantage.

The company fully relies on Shandong’s excellent resource endowment (the four major gold mines in the province have been listed in the “Top Ten Mines in China’s Gold Production” for many years and builds its performance foundation), and gradually to areas outside Shandong (Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Fujian) andThe 杭州桑拿网 overseas region (Argentina) has expanded its resource reserves and business scale.

As of the end of 2018, the company retained nearly 1,000 tons of gold equity resources (metals), and its equity reserves exceeded 300 tons (metals), further consolidating its resource advantages.

In fact, the company continued to optimize mining technology and strengthen integrated management to consolidate and enhance its cost advantages. In 2017, the company’s cash cost was 681.

USD 6 / ounce, significantly lower than the domestic average of USD 715 / inch.

The price of gold is expected to continue to be strong.

The PMI indicators of major global economies have weakened in a synchronized manner, and the economic outlook is expected to worsen. The weak US data has strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve 天津夜网 ‘s interest rate cut at the July interest rate meeting will become a high probability event, covering many countries around the world earlier.The short-term interest rate cut has been gradually expanded, and global liquidity easing is expected to continue to increase; uncertain events such as Sino-US trade friction, Brexit, and the US-Iraq conflict have triggered the rise of international risk aversion, and even high U.S. stocks are likely to increase risks, Thereby increasing the attractiveness of safe-haven assets; since 2018, the enthusiasm for buying gold worldwide has increased, and the amount of gold that has been gradually purchased has sometimes increased by more than 70%, and the gradual departure has also started a new round of gold since December 2018.With increasing holdings of gold, gold assets are increasingly favored by the monetary authorities; short-term market bullish sentiment for gold is high, and mid-to-long-term gold prices are expected to benefit from further declines in long-term interest rates on U.S. Treasuries, and the probability of gold prices continuing to fluctuate is expected to fluctuate.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The company’s mining gold output is expected to continue to increase, which will fully benefit from the upward price of gold. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will be 19 in 2019-2020.

3/29.

4/37.

2 ppm, corresponding PE is 47/31/24 times, considering the position of the company’s industry leader, it is estimated that there is a certain premium space, covering the “overweight” level for the first time.

Risk Warning: The price of gold has fallen sharply, the exchange rate has increased, the progress of asset injection and overseas mergers and acquisitions has fallen short of expectations, the mine grade has shifted, and production safety risks.

Guosheng Securities: Refinancing Loosening Focus on Brokerage + Technology

Guosheng Securities: Refinancing Loosening Focus on Brokerage + Technology

Source: Yao Wang’s potential last week. In the weekly report last week, we clearly prompted the refinancing of unbundling, focusing on brokers + technology. This week, we have lived up to expectations and continued to improve.

  Review of core viewpoints: The annual strategy on December 14, 19 was the first to propose “2020, Cycle Revaluation” in the entire market.

“Strategically Looking at Multi-Cycle Core Assets” on December 21, and “Cycle Core Assets: Will Meet the Historical Revaluation” on December 29 highlighting the three combined forces that will promote the reassessment of cyclic core assets.

January 5 “Continue to look at multi-cycle core assets”.

On February 2nd, “The shock is short-term, and the victory will eventually belong to optimists.” It is predicted that the shock will be short-term, and the index will go out of the “golden pit.”

On February 4th, “Cleaning Lead Blooms, Resurgence of Science and Technology” clearly judged that technology was the main line of the stage.

  Outlook: Refinancing unbundling, focusing on securities firms + technology-the new rules are formally implemented, and refinancing will accelerate unbundling.

On February 14, the new regulations for refinancing of the Securities and Futures Commission were officially released.

The contents of this adjustment mainly include: 1) Reducing the risk of the GEM refinancing door: canceling the profit condition for GEM stocks to increase for two consecutive years; canceling the condition that the asset-liability ratio of the GEM publicly issued securities at the end of the latest period exceeds 45%.

2) Optimizing the institutional arrangement for the fixed-income increase: First, flexible pricing for strategic investors.

Second, adjust the fixed price and lock-up mechanism.

Changed the pricing range from 10% to 20%; shortened the lock-up period to 18 months and 6 months, respectively, and was not restricted by the reduction rules.

Third, increase the number of fixed-income objects.

Adjust the number of stocks to be fixed to no more than 35.

3) Extend the validity period of the refinancing approval from 6 months to 12 months.

4) Moderately relax the restrictions on the size of the fixed-income financing, and it must not exceed 20% to 30% of the total share capital before the issuance.

  -Which sectors benefit the most?

First of all, the growth of science and technology can achieve three dimensions to benefit from the refinancing loosening: 1) directly benefit from the relaxation of refinancing conditions on the GEM.

The lifting of resistance restrictions directly benefits TMT, some midstream manufacturing (mechanical equipment, electrical equipment), medicine, and chemicals.

The removal of profit restrictions directly benefits TMT, some midstream manufacturing, medicine, and public utilities.

Taken together, the restrictions on refinancing of GEM are loosened, and the direct benefit industries are basically the same, focusing on TMT, medicine, and some midstream manufacturing.

2) From a static perspective, historically there is a great need for refinancing.

Mainly concentrated in chemical industry, some midstream manufacturing, medicine, TMT.

3) The dynamic angle was suppressed by the previous round of refinancing, and the coefficient of elasticity was relaxed after relaxation.

It mainly includes TMT, some midstream manufacturing, real estate, and chemicals.

  As a whole, the industries that most benefit from the refinancing loosening are growth industries (TMT, pharmaceuticals), and some midstream industries (machinery, electrical equipment, chemicals, public utilities).

Specifically, this policy adjustment measure has led to a recovery in corporate refinancing needs and provided business increments for brokerage investment banks, resulting in improved performance.

At the same time, it will increase market activity and promote long-term health of the market.

Therefore, the brokerage sector will benefit in the short and long term.

  -In the medium and long term, long-distance cattle are being bred.

Unbundling refinancing is bound to attract medium- and long-term funds from various institutions and industrial capital to enter the market, thereby providing admission opportunities and channels.

As a result, the entire capital market will usher in a two-way expansion of the chip end and the capital end. With the gradual improvement of the registration system and the exit mechanism, the capital market will be more healthy and mature, and it will better serve the entity.

In the medium and long term, it is an inevitable trend for capital markets to improve.

At present, the market is still at the bottom of the long cycle, and the long-term expansion of long-term cattle is being bred.

  Investment strategy: focus on brokers + technology-brokers: After the introduction of the new regulations, it will gradually bring business increase to brokers, gradually increase market activity, and promote long-term healthy upward market.

Therefore, the brokerage sector will benefit in the short and long term.
  -Technology growth: It is still the main line of the stage and directly benefits from the refinancing loosening.

Focus on the electronics, electronics, computer and other industries.  -Cyclic core assets: policy counter-cyclical efforts continued to increase, and then the epidemic eased and resumed production accelerated, and the economy returned to normal.

The cyclical revaluation of core asset values will continue.

  Risk warnings: 1. The epidemic situation has exceeded expectations; 2. The macroeconomic changes have exceeded expectations.

  Review of the main body of the report: The annual strategy on December 14, 19 was the first in the market to propose “2020, Cycle Revaluation.”

“Strategically Looking at Multi-Cycle Core Assets” on December 21, and “Cycle Core Assets: Will Meet the Historical Revaluation” on December 29 highlighting the three combined forces that will promote the reassessment of cyclic core assets.

January 5 “Continue to look at multi-cycle core assets”.
On February 2nd, “The shock is short-term, and the victory will eventually belong to optimists.” It is predicted that the shock will be short-term, and the index will go out of the “golden pit.”

On February 4th, “Cleaning Lead Blooms, Resurgence of Science and Technology” clearly judged that technology was the main line of the stage.
  Strategic outlook: Refinancing unbundling, focusing on brokerage firms + technology 1, the new rules are officially implemented, and refinancing is accelerating unbundling.

On February 14, the new regulations for refinancing of the Securities and Futures Commission were officially released.

The contents of this adjustment mainly include: 1) Reducing the risk of the GEM refinancing door: canceling the profit condition for GEM stocks to increase for two consecutive years; canceling the condition that the asset-liability ratio of the GEM publicly issued securities at the end of the latest period exceeds 45%.

2) Optimizing the institutional arrangement for the fixed-income increase: First, flexible pricing for strategic investors.
Second, adjust the fixed price and lock-up mechanism.
Changed the pricing range from 10% to 20%; shortened the lock-up period to 18 months and 6 months, respectively, and was not restricted by the reduction rules.

Third, increase the number of fixed-income objects.
Adjust the number of stocks to be fixed to no more than 35.
3) Extend the validity period of the refinancing approval from 6 months to 12 months.
4) Moderately relax the restrictions on the size of the fixed-income financing, and it must not exceed 20% to 30% of the total share capital before the issuance.

  2. Which sectors benefit the most?

First of all, the growth of science and technology can achieve three dimensions to benefit from the refinancing loosening: 1) directly benefit from the relaxation of refinancing conditions on the GEM.

The lifting of resistance restrictions directly benefits TMT, some midstream manufacturing (mechanical equipment, electrical equipment), medicine, and chemicals.

The removal of profit restrictions directly benefits TMT, some midstream manufacturing, medicine, and public utilities.

Taken together, the restrictions on refinancing of GEM are loosened, and the direct benefit industries are basically the same, focusing on TMT, medicine, and some midstream manufacturing.

2) From a static perspective, historically there is a great need for refinancing.
Mainly concentrated in chemical industry, some midstream manufacturing, medicine, TMT.

3) The dynamic angle was suppressed by the previous round of refinancing, and the coefficient of elasticity was relaxed after relaxation.

It mainly includes TMT, some midstream manufacturing, real estate, and chemicals.

  Therefore, on the whole, the industries that most directly benefit from the refinancing loosening are the growth industries (TMT, pharmaceuticals), and some midstream industries (machinery, electrical equipment, chemicals, public utilities).

In essence, the refinancing is loosened, and the refinancing needs of enterprises are gradually realized, and incremental business is brought to the investment bank of securities companies, which will bring about a certain degree of performance improvement.

At the same time, it will increase market activity and promote long-term health of the market.

Therefore, the brokerage sector will benefit in the short and long term.
  3. Long and medium-term long-distance cattle are being bred.

Unbundling refinancing is bound to attract medium- and long-term funds from various institutions and industrial capital to enter the market, thereby providing admission opportunities and channels.

As a result, the entire capital market will usher in a two-way expansion of the chip end and the capital end. With the gradual improvement of the registration system and the exit mechanism, the capital market will be more healthy and mature, and it will better serve the entity.

In the medium and long term, it is an inevitable trend for capital markets to improve.

At present, the market is still at the bottom of the long cycle, and the long-term expansion of long-term cattle is being bred.
  Investment strategy: focus on brokers + technology-brokers: After the introduction of the new regulations, it will gradually bring business increase to brokers, gradually increase market activity, and promote long-term healthy upward market.

Therefore, the brokerage sector will benefit in the short and long term.
  -Technology growth: It is still the main line of the stage and directly benefits from the refinancing loosening.

Focus on the electronics, electronics, computer and other industries.  -Cyclic core assets: policy counter-cyclical efforts continued to increase, and then the epidemic eased and resumed production accelerated, and the economy returned to normal.

The cyclical revaluation of core asset values will continue.
  The growth of science and technology is a periodic mainline epidemic shock, and the short-term market has changed dramatically, with risk appetite at the core.

Similar to this epidemic, during the SARS epidemic in 2003, during the SARS peak period from mid-April to mid-May, investor panic also spread, and the market became the main contradiction for the epidemic.

In addition to the obvious resistance to decline in the pharmaceutical and some high-boom industries, most of the sectors were adjusted centrally.

However, measures must be taken to deal with the situation in time. From mid-May, SARS was gradually controlled and entered the period of mitigation of the epidemic.

At this time, the risk was obviously repaired, and at the same time became the main line to guide the market.

  Therefore, the gradual inheritance of the epidemic has gradually eased, and the estimated risk is expected to enter a period of repair.

The market is expected to step out of the golden pit and usher in a rebound.

And the structure may become the focus of determining the level of excess returns.

We believe that the triple driving force will lead the technology growth rate to go out and adjust first: 1) Risk appetite drive: With reference to the 2003 SARS epidemic, when the epidemic eases and the market rebounds, risk appetite is the main line of the market.

And the electronic, computer, media and other industries affected by the increase in risk have become the main force of the rebound, and the increase has far exceeded the market.

We believe that after the epidemic has entered a mitigation period, risk compensation and repair will also lead to the growth of science and technology to obtain significant excess returns.

  2) Driven by liquidity environment: Secondly, the recent supervision continues to release warmth, and clearly protects the physical and capital market markets.

With ample liquidity, the technology growth sector has also benefited even more.

Recently, the CSRC and the CBRC have made intensive voices, clearly demanding that monetary and credit support be increased to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity during the epidemic prevention and control period.

As a result, growth stocks that are more sensitive to the denominator will be more conducive to a loose monetary environment.

  3) Prosperity-driven: On the basic surface, the support of technological growth and the advantages of prosperity coexist simultaneously.

Judging from the results of the 2019 performance forecast, the performance of the GEM in the fourth quarter of 2019 will rebound sharply, and it has a significant advantage over the performance of the main board.

Specifically, after GEM eliminated Wen’s shares, LeTV, Ningde Times, Jianrui Woengeng and Guangguang Media, its growth rate in the fourth quarter was expected to be 48.

8%, compared with 7 in the third quarter.

0% rebounded 41.

7 partnerships; GEM refers to the fourth quarter performance growth is expected to be 5.
.

9%, compared with -8 in the third quarter.

4% rebounded 14.

4 performance; GEM heavy stocks (total market value accounted for the top 20 stocks) 4 quarterly performance growth is expected to be 53.

4%, compared with 40 in the third quarter.

5% rebounded 12.

9 averages.

  From the perspective of the subdivided industries, as of January 24, the industries with a repetition rate greater than 50%, the industries that have been continuously improved in the last two periods are mainly power equipment, Internet media, consumer electronics, semiconductors, environmental protection and public utilities.

Therefore, on the whole, the prosperity of the sub-areas of technological growth continues to improve.

  The science and technology board will become an important “main battlefield” in the future. The science and technology board index will lead the world’s major indexes, and the excess income will be significant.

As of January 2020, the science and technology board has been running smoothly for 7 months. Based on the overall performance of listed companies in the science and technology board, the science and technology board index (based on the tradable share capital as the weight of the Papex index is calculated in increments.It will be subdivided after 5 trading days, and the index base period is July 30, 2019.) Track the performance of the science and technology board.

The science and technology board index achieved significant excess returns and led the world’s major indexes.

As of the close of February 7, 2020, the Science and Technology Board Index has gradually increased by 30.

47%. 北京夜网 During the same period, the Shenzhen Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index increased gradually by only 13.

78% and -1.

93%.

In terms of benchmarking overseas, the investment income of the science and technology board also increased significantly. The three major stock indexes of the U.S. stock market, meanwhile, the Nasdaq, S & P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Index continued to expand by a range of only 17.
08%, 12.
26% and 9.

36%.

  Public fundraising has been invested in science and technology innovation, and domestic institutions are gradually rushing to raise funds.

In the first quarter of the listing of the science and technology board, public fundraising began to invest in the science and technology board. Lanqi Technology and Nanwei Medical have entered the top ten heavy positions of some funds in 2019Q3, and the latest 2019Q4 public fund position data shows thatThe number of science and technology board standards that have entered the top ten heavy positions has expanded to 19, and the market value of science and technology board positions has significantly increased compared to the third quarter, and the proportion of positions held from 0 in 2019Q3.

09% has expanded to 0 in 2019Q4.

44%.

As of the end of 2019, there are 281 publicly-funded funds in the top ten heavy storage stocks that involve the science and technology board standard. Domestic institutions are gradually increasing their attention to the science and technology board standard, and the science and technology sector’s grabbing is being staged.

  In the age of equity financing, the science and technology board welcomes historic possibilities.

At present, the routine is at an important historical stage of economic transformation. Economic momentum is gradually shifting from capital-driven to technology-driven. The science and technology board is shouldering the historical task of easing the financing difficulties of science and technology enterprises.

Referring to overseas experience, direct financing, especially equity financing, will become a strong support for the economic transition period. Moreover, the long-term financing structure faces a situation where equity financing accounts for less than 5% for a long time, and the development potential is huge.

In the future, developing countries will usher in a big era of equity financing, and the science and technology board will also have huge development potential.

  Focusing on technological innovation, the science and technology board is rapidly rising.

Since the successful listing of the first batch of science and technology board companies on July 22, 2019, the share of science and technology board IPOs has continued to rise.

As of February 7, 2020, the number of IPO companies in the science and technology board has exceeded 50%, and the science and technology board is becoming the “main force” for the increase of multinational listed companies.

From the perspective of industry distribution, science and technology board enterprises are concentrated in electronics, machinery and equipment, computers, and medical biology. The top 4 industries account for 78%, and the IPOs of companies in such industries are basically concentrated in science and technology boards, of which medicineSince July 22, the bio-company IPO has all chosen to land on the science and technology board, and the other three industry science and technology board also accounted for more than 50%.

In the future, science and technology innovation shows in electronics, machinery and equipment, computers, pharmaceutical and biological industries are expected to gather here, and the science and technology board will become an important battlefield for investment in such industries.

  In summary, the future will be a big era of equity financing, and the science and technology board will usher in historical possibilities.

In the future, the number of enterprises, the weight ratio and the segmentation of the science and technology board will continue to increase.

In fact, the science and technology board will attract more and more institutional investors to participate, and it will inevitably become one of the “main battlefields” of A shares in the future, and it will also become an important source of excess income.

  The core asset cycle estimation system for the strategic allocation cycle has yet to be “disordered anyway”, and leading companies generally discount.

According to the series of reports in our “New Strategy” series of leading companies in mature markets represented by the United States and Japan, leading companies enjoy estimated premiums. The current A-share valuation system is experiencing “disorder anyway.”

Consumer, technology and other industry leaders have gradually moved from discounts to premiums, and many cyclical industry forecasts have not yet begun to “disorder anyway”, and the leaders are generally discounting.

Regardless of the combination of the top 20 leading companies in the industry by market value or the largest leader in the industry, cycle leaders are generally discounted relative to the industry. With the remodeling of the cycle leader estimation system, it is expected to usher in a breakthrough in the future.

  We have always been committed to institutionalization and internationalization. What a stock is going through is not a simple reincarnation, but a historical change.

In the process, a stock’s estimation system will gradually be in line with international standards and derailed from history.

Therefore, we need to break the shackles of the historical estimation framework. Horizontal (international) estimation comparisons will be more reasonable than initial (historical) comparisons.

The performance is stable, and the high ROE industry leaders will continue to enjoy the valuation premium.

The stock consumption leader estimation system is the first to complete international standards, but with US stock rankings, the core assets of the stock cycle are still passing through the replacement repair space.

  From the perspective of PB-ROE, compare the estimated levels of China and the US cycle leaders.

Leading stocks are estimated to be relatively profitable, especially in the energy, building materials, construction, and real estate industries.

For comparison between China and the United States, the GICS industry classification is adopted.

  Energy industry: A-share leaders are estimated to be low, and some are more profitable.

China Shenhua PB is estimated to exceed US stocks leader, and ROE advantage is significant; Sinopec, China Petroleum PB is estimated to exceed US stocks leader.

  Building materials industry: A-share leader estimates are reasonable and profitability is stronger.

Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Oriental Yuhong are estimated to be close to US stock leaders, but ROE is much higher than US stock leaders, and it is estimated to be more attractive.

  Construction industry: A stock leader is estimated to be more reasonable and profitable.

China Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Railway Evaluation are far lower than the leading US stocks, and ROE has advantages and is estimated to be more attractive.

  Real estate industry: A stock leader estimates the earnings and the profit is stronger.

Huaxia Happiness, Vanke A, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Real Estate are estimated to be far lower than the leading US stocks, and the ROE is higher and the attraction is stronger.
  Electrical equipment industry: The matching degree of A-share leaders is similar to that of US stocks.
  Chemical industry: A-share leaders are reasonably valued and match similar to US stocks.
The valuation and profitability of A-share chemical leaders are at a medium level. Machinery industry: A-share leaders have low valuations and low profits, and their matching degree is similar to that of US stocks.
Weichai Power and Sany Heavy Industry have lower valuations but lower ROE.
  Paper industry: A-share leaders have low valuations, medium profits, and better matching.
The valuations of Shanying Paper, Sun Paper, and Chenming Paper are relatively low. The ROE of Shan Ying Paper and Sun Paper are both at a medium level, and the valuation is more attractive than that of US stocks.
  Aviation & Railway Industry: Leading A-shares have low valuations and low profits, and their matching is similar to that of US stocks.
  Logistics industry: A-share leaders have reasonable valuations and moderate profitability, and their matching degree is similar to that of US stocks.
  Metals, non-metals and mining: Most A-share leaders are overvalued.
The valuation of Baosteel is low, and the matching of earnings and valuation is more attractive.
Other leading valuations are on the high side.
  Over the past few years, some cyclical leaders are experiencing “cyclical blue chip”, and we have seen that earnings stability has become the key to improving valuations.
With Conch Cement as its representative, along with the convergence of economic fluctuations and the optimization of the industry’s competitive landscape, its earnings growth rate has declined and fluctuated, showing a “blue chip” characteristic of solid growth.
Even if the performance growth in 2018 was affected, the ROE level remained high and its valuation was the first to usher in a repair.
For most of the cycle leaders represented by China Shenhua, the valuation has not yet been repaired.
The company is an industry leader in the fields of coal, power, railways, and ports, and has strong competitiveness.
受益于“煤电化路港航”全产业链的协同效应和纵向一体化优势,即使在煤价下行周期中,业绩底部依然明确,19Q3单季净利润创近 6 年新高,抵御风险能力强劲.
The company has ample cash flow, low valuation and high dividends, but the valuation is still low.
In the future, a cyclical leader similar to China Shenhua may usher in “valuation disorder” anyway.
  As economic fluctuations converge in the future, the stabilization of profitability will promote more cyclical stocks to usher in valuation.
On the one hand, as the economy stabilizes and fluctuations converge, more cyclical stocks with stable performance and stable cash flow will emerge in the future.
On the other hand, under the stock economy, the profit will be further concentrated to the leader, and the cycle leader’s valuation will have more room to repair.
  As earnings stabilize, cyclical stocks’ “low valuation trap” concerns will gradually ease.
Why did the previous cycle continue to have lower valuations and weak revaluations?
Mainly because investors are generally worried that the economic downtrend or the cycle will accelerate its earnings downward, and thus fall into the “low valuation trap.”
Recently, with the recovery of economic data, the central bank has continuously lowered the policy interest rate and reached a first-phase agreement through negotiations between China and the United States, the market’s expectations for subsequent economic stabilization have risen.
Therefore, the “low valuation trap” of the cycle is expected to be gradually lifted, at least in a phased relief, and it is expected to promote the repair of cyclical stock valuation.
  Review of market performance this week Market capital situation 面 Performance of major global markets

Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493): Private refining and chemical carrier construction nearly half or the largest integrated project in China

Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493): Private refining and chemical carrier construction nearly half or the largest integrated project in China
Investment highlights for the first time covered Rongsheng Petrochemical Company (002493) with a neutral rating and a target price of 11.50 yuan, corresponding to 15 times the 2020 price-earnings ratio.The reasons are as follows: The integrated refining and chemical project is about to be put into full production and is expected to bring incremental performance.The company’s Zhejiang Petrochemical 2,000-ton refining and integration project (Phase I) invested and constructed by the company in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, holds a 51% stake. The main part of the refining industry has been successfully put into production in May this year, and the subsequent aromatic and ethylene parts are expected to be put into production by the end of this year.We conservatively estimate that under the assumptions of 40% and 80% load rate of refining and chemical projects in 2019-2020, the first phase of the project is expected to increase the company’s net profit by US $ 600 million and US $ 1.8 billion, and the central and long-term increase in net profit may reach 35 billion.yuan. The second phase of the refining and chemical project followed closely and put forward a test of cash flow planning.The second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2,000 budget / year project has also entered the civil construction stage. The project investment is about 83 billion yuan and the capital requirement is about 25 billion yuan, which means that the company plans to pay about 12.7 billion capital.The company announced that it will raise 8 billion US dollars in private placement in 2019, mainly for the preparation of investment funds for the second phase of the project.We expect that the company’s equity may be replaced in the future, and the debt ratio may also rise further. PTA and polyester incremental business development priorities are relatively low.Considering that the company’s main investment and development direction in the past two years has focused on the two phases of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the company’s priority in developing PTA and polyester 南宁桑拿 incremental business may be relatively low. What makes us different from the market?The market profit is impacted by the intensive commissioning of new capacity. Part of the profits of PX and PTA may be transferred to downstream polyester conversion or to end consumers in the next two years.We believe that there is limited room for short-term PX and PTA spreads to narrow, while in the long run it will still return to a higher level of profitability. Potential catalyst: Refining and petrochemical projects bring incremental performance. Earnings forecast and estimation We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2020 to be 0.47 yuan and 0.77 yuan, an annual growth rate of 85.3% and 62.4%.Considering that the first phase of the refining and petrochemical project is expected to be finally put into operation, the second phase is under construction, giving 15 times the 2020 PER and target price of 11.5 yuan, corresponding to the current expected 3% downside.The current contradiction corresponds to 15 of 2020.4x price-earnings ratio. Risks International oil prices have fluctuated sharply, entering new product competition, and cash flow risks.

Seagull Living (002084): The front runner in the air conditioning of the sanitary industry

Seagull Living (002084): The front runner in the air conditioning of the sanitary industry

Invest in a logic-listed company that integrates large-scale 上海夜网论坛 production of complete bathrooms.

The company is one of the largest domestic high-end faucet and sanitary hardware product manufacturing service providers. Since 2015, the company has laid out complete sanitary wares, and has three major production bases in Suzhou, Qingdao and Zhuhai.

With the promotion of policies, the whole bathroom industry has started an explosive development period.

1) In February this year, the Ministry of Housing and Construction announced the “Specifications for Residential Projects (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)”, which requires that new residential houses in cities and towns should be fully furnished and delivered, and “waterproofing of bathrooms should be no less than 20 years”.

In addition, the “Technical Standards for the Application of Prefabricated Integrated Bathrooms” has been officially implemented on May 1 this year.

We estimate that the new policy will quickly generate a billion-dollar residential commercial housing complete bathroom market.

2) Relevant policies such as long-term rental apartments and talent programs have been gradually implemented since 2015, which have also indirectly promoted the selection of cost-effective packaged sanitary products for apartment projects.

Unique tools to solve the pain points of the whole bathroom, high-end, low-end products “matched.”

The company acquired Suzhou Youchao, which has rich experience in the production of packaged sanitary wares, and reached technical agreements with Panasonic and Siemens successively. With the company’s absolute strength in the sanitary hardware industry for many years, it has reached world-class production technology.

The surface mount technology and flexible mold technology developed by the company ensure the production capacity of customized products for different needs.

There are two-wheel drive of Chaos and Furunda, which realize the full category coverage of short-term talent apartments, convenient hotel projects, mid-to-long-term refined decoration commercial housing, and luxury residential projects.

Sufficient orders and the gradual release of capacity have entered the harvest period.

The company has successfully entered the integrated sanitary ware collection system of developers such as Vanke and Longhu, and is the only supplier that has obtained both Vanke SMC and color steel plate integrated sanitary ware collection qualifications.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, there were two self-made sanitary ware business segments, Chaos and Furunda, which achieved profit for the first time. In 2018, the operating income reached 68 million yuan, accounting for 3% of the company’s operating income.

With the continued advancement of fund-raising projects, it is expected that the company’s capacity increase will be further released quickly.

At present, the company’s major customers have sufficient orders. The three major production bases are almost full. The production capacity is about 4,500 units / month. If the new plant is completed and put into production, it is expected to reach 9,000 units / month by the end of this year and 18,000 units / month by the end of next year.

Estimates and investment recommendations The complete bathroom industry is about to usher in explosive growth, and the company has the largest complete layout in terms of technology, channels and customers.

We predict that the company’s EPS will be zero after 2019-2021.

24/0.

29/0.

35 yuan (three-year CAGR is 62.

2%), giving the company 5 in the next 6-12 months.

The target price of 94 yuan, equivalent to 25 times PE in 2019, is given a “Buy” rating for the first time.

Risks The implementation of the new policy did not meet the expected risks, risks in the real estate industry, risks in the smooth progress of the fundraising project, risks in the price of raw materials, exchange rate risks, risks in the development of new businesses not meeting expectations, and macroeconomic value risks.

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Steady Growth in Steady Growth and Profitability Steady Improvement

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Steady Growth in Steady Growth and Profitability Steady Improvement

Performance review: FY18 performance was slightly lower than expected.

FY 2018 achieved total revenue of 16.

0.94 million yuan, ten years +9.

9%, of which the main condiment business income is 15.

28 trillion, ten years +10.

4%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

05 ten percent, +8.

4%, deducting non-net profit 2.

19 trillion, +20 for ten years.

7%, budget benefit 0.

39 yuan, the performance was slightly lower than expected.

Of which 18Q4 earned 4.

580,000 yuan, ten years +7.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 0.

86 ppm, at least -36.

6%.

FY18 gross profit margin 42.

2%, ten years +1.

6pcts, net interest rate 18.

0%, one year -0.

2pct.

FY18 budget proposed dividend.

12 yuan (including tax), dividends implanted 30.

9%.

Vinegar and cooking wine are growing well, and the expansion in East China and foreign ports has been smooth.

Revenue of the company’s condiment business in FY18.

28 trillion, ten years +10.

4%, black vinegar and high-end vinegar categories continued to grow, and cooking wine actively explored the market to record a higher growth rate, of which black vinegar / white vinegar / cooking wine business income was 8.

94/1.

63/1.

94 trillion, +9 for each year.

59% / 13.

3% / 26.

6%, of which high-end vinegar accounted for 23% of balsamic vinegar products.

5%, ± 2.

2pcts, high-end vinegar income +15 for ten years.

1%, higher than the growth rate of vinegar.

The increase in vinegar and cooking wine was mainly due to the increase in sales, which were +8.83% / 33.

42%, reflecting the company’s precise brand publicity, the “big single product + dual brand” operation and the development of catering channels have gone smoothly.

In terms of different regions, the market advantage of East China continues, with a revenue share of 48.

7%, +4 per year.

2pcts, East China / West China / North China / South China / Central China revenue increased by 20 respectively.

3% / 17.

7% / 13.

2% / 12.

3% / 12.

3%, both achieved a benign growth of more than double digits, while accelerating the pace of expansion into overseas markets, overseas sales increased by 18.

6%.

In addition, the company reached strategic cooperation with mainstream e-commerce platforms such as Tmall and JD. Its offline stores expanded to 7 trillion.

Profitability has steadily improved, and non-net profit has been set at a record high.

In FY18, the company’s condiment business gross margin was 43.

3%, ten years +1.

82 items, of which the vinegar / cooking wine gross margin was 44.

0% / 33.

2%, ten years +2.

0 / -6.

At 31 pcts, the company continued to create “Class A core products” and “high-end products”. The vinegar category benefited from product upgrades and production scale, and its gross profit margin increased steadily. However, due to the increase in raw material costs, cooking wine category actively explored the market and caused a decline in gross profit margin.On the whole, the company’s profitability has continued to improve.

On the expense side, the long-term selling expense ratio is 14.

9% every year -0.

3pct, mainly derived from the promotion expense ratio ratio -1.

4pcts, management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 9.

4% per year -0.

2pct, of which R & D cost is +257 for ten years.

4%, cost control is good, and operating efficiency continues to improve.

FY18 company realized non-recurring gains and losses of 0.

US $ 8.5 billion, including government subsidies, gains from changes in fair value, etc., and realized non-net profit deductions2.

19 trillion, +20 for ten years.

7%, a record high, of which 18Q4 company achieved net profit attributable to mother.

86 ppm, at least -36.

6%, mainly due to 0 in 17Q4.

The 5.2 billion asset disposal income has a high base. Excluding recurring gains and losses, the company realized a net deduction of non-attribution to its mother in 0Q0.

60 trillion, +3 for ten years.

6%.

Focus on the main business, strengthen marketing, and wait for the improvement of the mechanism to drive speed.

In 19 years, the company’s target condiment business sales growth + 12%, deducting non-net profit + 15% per year.

In the past two years, the company has stepped up marketing reforms, channel feedback policies have been continuously strengthened, and the sales staff assessment mechanism has improved. At the same time, non-main business has been dealt 南宁桑拿 with in an orderly manner, and operating efficiency has continued to improve.

In terms of market, it has consolidated traditional channels, actively expanded catering channels, and fully promoted the operation of Hengshun and Beigushan dual-brands and product classification. At the same time, it has implemented precise advertising and established a high-end brand image.Initially, the main products were raised in price, and channel feedback was good.

In the future, the improvement of expectation mechanisms will drive the acceleration of category revenue, and scale effects and cost control will continue to drive profitability to release performance flexibility.

Profit forecast, estimation and investment recommendations: The company focuses on the main business, the condiment business maintains a steady growth, the cost 北京夜网 control effect is good, the profitability continues to improve, the initial main product price increases to improve performance, channel feedback sales are good, and marketing channels improve gradually.Progress, and look forward to the follow-up mechanism reform to promote the full release of business vitality.

We predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-2020 will be 0.

43/0.

50/0.

60 yuan, corresponding to PE is 31/26/22 times, with reference to comparable companies in the industry, based on 30X estimates next year, the company will be given a target price of 15 yuan, maintaining a “recommended” rating.

Risk reminder: market expansion is less than expected, and marketing reform is less effective than expected.

Guiguang Network (600996) Industry Prosperity Enhances Company’s Core Competitiveness

Guiguang Network (600996) Industry Prosperity Enhances Company’s Core Competitiveness
Recently, the radio and television industry has intensive policies. Favorable policies such as 5G and ultra-high-definition video are expected to improve the prosperity of the radio and television industry in the medium and long term.On November 22, 2018, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television stated in public that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had agreed to participate in the 5G license of the State Grid Corporation of China.Substantial advancement in 2019; On March 1, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, and CCTV issued the “Ultra HD Video Industry Development Action Plan (2019-2022)”. Based on the existing wired network advantages, the first-mover advantage is obvious.The above policy support is expected to gradually improve the traditional business under constant pressure, and the medium and long term will improve the industry’s prosperity. The company’s core competitiveness, to the C business is stable and the proportion of revenue has gradually decreased, to the B / ToG business is elastic, is expected to become the main driving force of the company’s performance in a short time. The company took the lead in completing the integration of the provincial network. (At present, only four listed radio and television companies have been completed, and the other three are Jilin, Shaanxi, and Guangxi.) The fiber optic network has covered all villagers’ groups (in the province, it is covered by the three major telecommunications operators).Wider), the intranet rate of broadband services is as high as 85%. Based on the advantages of provincial network integration, compared with the three major telecommunications operators, the company integrates competitive advantages (wider, conversion) within Guizhou Province.The company continues to invest in the construction of radio and television infrastructure network facilities. By the end of 2018, the construction of main facilities has been basically completed (the depreciation and amortization forecast for 2018 is about 3).300 million). In the future, the marginal cost of expanding the customer collection business on a complete basic network will increase, and the performance of new businesses will be more flexible. The company fully benefits from the people ‘s livelihood project: 1) the people ‘s livelihood project has received much attention and the administrative promotion has made breakthroughs; 2) after the people ‘s livelihood project has supplemented the financial budget, the stability of the business is guaranteed; 3) if the people ‘s livelihood project benefits from policy support, it will take a short time,efficient. Investment suggestion: The company’s core competitiveness is outstanding. Based on the existing resource endowment, the future performance is highly flexible.We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to mothers from 2018 to 20203.2.2 billion, 3.5.7 billion, 4.44 trillion, corresponding to EPS 0.31 yuan, 0.34 yuan, 0.43 yuan, taking into account the company’s strategic expansion period in 2018 and 2019, we believe that the company’s net profit margin 成都桑拿网 in 2020 is a reference value; the industry’s prosperity has risen, and the company’s own competitiveness is outstanding. We give the company a PE estimate of 25-30 times in 2020, Corresponding to the target price of 11.61 yuan, maintain “Buy-A” rating. Risk reminder: the risk that the business development progress of B / G is less than expected, the risk of the deterioration of the fundamentals of C business, the three major benefits of the radio and television industry, and finally the realization of the risk of measuring the decline of the central hub.

Depth-Company-Hualan Biological (002007): Flu vaccine maintains rapid growth, blood products business stabilizes and rebounds

Deepin * Company * Hualan Biological (002007): Flu vaccine maintains rapid growth in blood products business stabilizes and rebounds

The main points of the official rating are quarterly. In 2018, the company’s revenue and net profit growth resumed growth quarter by quarter and accelerated from the second half of the year.

Starting from Q2, the company’s annual revenue and net profit growth reached 34.

63% and 39.

41%, through the Q4 influenza vaccine sales into the peak season, the company’s revenue and net profit growth rate reached 68 per year.

24% and 129.

88%, that is, the albumin channel destocking has been basically completed from Q3. Since Q4, albumin manufacturers’ inventory has started to be tight. Albumin has entered a tight supply and demand situation. In 2018, the blood product inventory decreased by 25.

75%.

By product line, a total of 852 influenza vaccines were issued in 2018.

260,0四川耍耍网00, accounting for 52 of the total number of influenza vaccines issued in the country.

85% of the vaccine business is expected to achieve revenue7.

9.8 billion, net profit 2.

0.3 billion (attributable to mother), net interest rate is 33.

83%. Due to the listing of high-margin quadruple influenza vaccine and scale effect, the gross profit margin of the vaccine business reached 83.

66%.

The total revenue of the blood products business was 24.

0.8 billion, net profit 8.

00 billion, net interest rate 33.

22%. Due to the backlog of inventory caused by the two-vote system, the ex-factory price of destocked blood products fell slightly, and the overall gross margin was 58.

84%.

Of which albumin income was 10.

25 billion, a year-on-year increase of +11.

45%, accounting for 42% of the income of blood products.

58%; Jing Cing income 6.

4.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.

77%, accounting for 25% of income from blood products.

09%; Expected exemption, total exemption and exemption 4.

600 million, a year-on-year increase of + 100%, accounting for 19% of the income of blood products; it is expected that the income of factor VIII and prothrombin complex will total 3.

200 million, + 29% year-on-year, accounting for 13% of blood product revenue.

In terms of expenses, it is estimated that the sales cost of vaccine business3.

2.7 billion, with a sales expense ratio of 40.

98%, blood product sales expenses2.

1.1 billion, sales expense ratio 8.

76%.

It is expected that the sales expense ratios of vaccines and blood products will remain at 41% and 8 in 2019, respectively.

5%.

In terms of management costs, it has increased by 13 per year.

89%. It is estimated that the total annual growth rate of R & D investment and other management expenses in 2019 will be 14.

33%, basically the same as the increase in 2018.In January 2019, the company awarded stock incentives to 111 employees at a price of 19.

68. Based on the 2017 net profit, the growth rate of net profit in 19 and 20 years should not be less than 16.

7% and 14.

3%.

In terms of new products, the AC meningopolysaccharide vaccine has been approved for sale in 2018, and the EV71 hand-foot-mouth virus inactivated vaccine has obtained clinical approval. It is expected that the diabetic vaccine will be approved for marketing by the end of 2019.

In addition, the company’s adalimumab, trastuzumab, rituximab, and bevacizumab are in phase III clinical trials. Denitumumab, panitumumab, and ipilimumab have obtained clinical approval.

It is estimated that as the cost of selling blood products is slightly higher than last year’s forecast, there will still be pressure for destocking in 2019, and the sales expense rate is still high. Therefore, the profit forecast for 19 and 20 is slightly adjusted down.Net profit was 13.

92, 17.

08, 20.

3.8 billion, corresponding to an EPS of 1.

49, 1.

83, 2.

18 yuan, corresponding to PE is 30, 24, 20 times, maintaining the buying level.

The main risks facing rating competition for intensified influenza vaccines, the progress of new product launches gradually surpassing expectations, and the destocking of static propanes gradually surpassing expectations.

Aishida (002403): Online Channel Share Declines

Aishida (002403): Online Channel Share Declines

Recent situation of the company Due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, the construction of all parts of the country has been postponed to February 10; the retail monitoring data of Taobao Data has been updated recently.

Comment on the proportion of cookware affected by the epidemic situation: 1) Cookware products are convenient for online shopping. We expect that cookware products will be relatively less affected during offline control.

2) The company’s offline channels are mainly in shopping malls and supermarkets. Passenger flow from the above channels will be affected in the first quarter.

Growth rate of online retail share: 1) According to data from Taobao, the retail sales of Astar’s flagship store in 2019 increased by 16%, which clearly exceeded the growth rate of the flagship flagship store of Supor Cookware (36%), indicating that the company’s online cookware share is decreasing.

The growth rate of the company’s retail sales is low, mainly because the average retail price has dropped significantly, and the company’s share in the high-end market has decreased.

The average retail price of flagship stores in 2019 was only 115 yuan, which was clearly widened by Supor (average price of 156 yuan).

2) During the 4Q19 Double Eleven promotion, the company was insufficiently prepared. In November, the retail sales of Astar’s flagship store accumulated -27%, while the revenue of Supor increased by 89% during the same period.

This led to the company’s poor online retail performance in 4Q19.

One-time income increase of land collection and storage in 2020: According to the company’s announcement, the company’s Wenling City factory will be expropriated and reserves, and the net book value of the land 杭州夜网论坛 is 0.

24 trillion, assessing market value 2.

US $ 8.9 billion. If we can get the full compensation in 2020, we expect to bring in profit after tax2.

200000000.

Estimates suggest that we maintain our 2019 EPS forecast of RMB 0.

41 yuan; considering the impact of epidemic prevention and control on domestic sales in 2020, the revenue and operating profit for 2020 will be lowered, but as land acquisition and storage will bring a one-time gain in 2020, we raise the EPS forecast for 2020 by 111%To 0.

99 yuan; dating 2021 EPS forecast 0.

49 yuan.

Maintain Neutral rating and maintain target price of 9.

00 yuan, corresponding to 22x / 9x 2019 / 20e P / E, a 15% increase in space.

The company’s current consensus corresponds to 19x / 8×2019 / 20e P / E.

Risk epidemic development exceeded expectations; domestic market demand risk.

Guizhou Moutai (600519) 19Q1 Comment: Gao Zeng’s statement welcomes opening door marketing break to help long-term development

Guizhou Moutai (600519) 19Q1 Comment: Gao Zeng’s statement welcomes “opening door” marketing break to help long-term development
Investment Highlights: Event: The company released its first quarter report for 2019 and achieved a total operating income of 216 in 19Q1.4.4 billion, an increase of 23 in ten years.9%, net profit attributable to mother 112.2.1 billion, an annual increase of 31.9%.In the performance forecast, the company forecast that the total operating income of 19Q1 will increase by about 20%, and the net profit of the mother will increase by about 30%. The company’s performance is in line with expectations. Investment Ratings and Estimates: Maintain earnings forecasts, predicting EPS for 2019-2021 of 34.49 yuan, 42.1 yuan, 47.86 yuan, an annual increase of 23%, 22%, 14%. The current corresponding PE is 28x, 23x, 20x respectively. Maintain Buy rating.In the first quarter, the company successfully achieved the “starting point”, and the growth rate was higher than the target index, which is the basis of about 14% of the revenue target. The report data is beautiful, and the month-on-month decrease in prepayments is mainly due to the overall decrease of dealers.The result of optimizing the structure is an active adjustment on the supply side rather than a passive change on the demand side. The supply and demand pattern and price performance of Moutai still remain strong.The reasons we are currently optimistic about Moutai are: 1. 2019 is the year when the Moutai channel is broken. It is expected that the company will continue to optimize its channel and product structure while maintaining a modest increase in scale in the future, and finally achieve the situation of both distribution and direct management; 2. Looking forward to 2020, as the approval price is already more than 80% higher than the ex-factory price, objective conditions for raising the factory price have once again appeared; 3. Estimated angle, through the continuous advancement of internationalization of stocks, Moutai estimates that it will benchmark overseas leaders and the center will continueUplifting; 4. At present, Moutai has firmly closed the price band of more than 1,000 yuan. Strong brand power and rich channel profits have built a solid moat. Moutai is the industry’s most certain leader. In 19Q1, the revenue of Moutai liquor increased by 24% each year, and the proportion of direct sales increased.1Q1 Moutai liquor revenue was 194.9.8 billion, an increase of 24% over the same period. Taking into account the structural improvement and the 18Q1 revenue recognition of some 819 yuan for the product (all 19Q1 is 969 yuan for the product), it is expected that the price of Moutai liquor in 19Q1 will increase by about 10%, and the corresponding sales volume of the report is 8,500 tons.-9000 tons, 10% -15% increase in ten years.Taking into account the implementation of the second quarter payment and the release of advance receipts in advance at the end of March 19, we expect that the actual increase in Maotai’s shipments in 19Q1 will not increase by about 8,000 tons (19Q1 taxes and additional reductions 4).7%, the cash received for sales of goods excluding advance receipts also slightly degraded, confirming that the actual shipment volume has not increased much.Compared with 18Q1, 19Q1 reduced the overall number of dealers (the number of dealers decreased by about 500) and reduced direct sales, but added high value-added products such as zodiac wine, boutique Maotai (matched to each specialty store), andDirect-operated stores are expected (expected to double Q1 supply), and custom memorial products will continue to ship.Series of wine income 21.3.2 billion, an 南京桑拿网 annual increase of 26%.By channel, 19Q1 direct sales revenue was 10.9.2 billion, down 21 previously.55%, accounting for 5.05%, down 2 every year.93 units, an increase of 2 from the previous quarter.Each of the 65 single sales decreased due to a significant decrease in the number of direct sales and direct sales of e-commerce, and the increase in the chain was mainly due to the volume of direct sales stores in 19Q1.At the end of the reporting period, there were 2,454 domestic distributors, a decrease of 494 distributors of sauce-flavored wines, a decrease of 39 distributors of Moutai, and a decrease of 476 distributors of Moutai from 2018 to the end of the first quarter of 2019. The gross profit margin increased by the ton price to the highest point in recent years, and the net sales margin further increased2.77pct.Gross profit margin 92.11%, a year to raise 0.8 units, mainly driven by the increase in ton price, the single-quarter gross profit margin reached the highest point, and also improved from 18Q4, indicating that the structure, direct sales and other high value-added products and channel ratio Q4 were further optimized. The tax rate is 10.71%, a decrease of 3 per year.For 02 shares, the decline in the tax rate was mainly due to the timing of confirmation of consumption tax. The tax rate was 18Q4 + 19Q113.57%, basically normal. Selling expense ratio 3.88%, down by 1 every year.26 total, management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 6.52%, a decline of 0 every year.03 averages, indicating that the efficiency of Moutai’s operations and expenses has been continuously improved. Advance receipts decreased by 21 from the previous month.9.2 billion, slower growth in cash flow than revenue.Combining with channel feedback, the second quarter payment was executed ahead of schedule at the end of the first quarter of 19, and advance payment was 113.85 billion, down 21 from the previous month.9.2 billion, the April payment at the end of the first quarter of 18, advance receipts fell by 12 chain.5.7 billion.1Q1 Net cash flow from operating activities11.89 billion, a decline of 75 per year.91% of which received 227 in cash from selling goods and providing services.5.8 billion, an increase of 17 in ten years.52%, the slower growth rate of cash flow than income growth was mainly due to the decline in advance receipts.The decrease in the net cash flow from operating activities exceeded expectations was mainly due to the increase in taxes and fees paid and the increase in the net budget of the industry. Accelerate the implementation of direct marketing channels, and marketing growth helps growth.2019 is defined as the year when the company’s marketing system is broken. It is expected that the cancelled replacements and gradual approvals will gradually adjust the company’s independent arrangements to rationalize and improve the channel system, mainly to direct sales channels, including group purchase customers., Self-operated stores, large supermarkets, well-known e-commerce, key city airports and high-speed rail stations.Last week, the Moutai Sales Company has released the tender information. The bidders and supermarket service providers have a total supply of 600 tons of Pfeiffer.In combination with channel tracking, direct sales in some regions have increased their sales significantly.At present, the approval price of Moutai is about 1900 yuan, and the supply of high value-added products such as high-quality products and Chinese zodiac has been tight recently.It is expected that with the gradual implementation of direct sales in Q2, the approval price will fall, but because a large amount of demand has not been met in the early stage, the approval price adjustment space is limited, and a moderate decline is more conducive to ensuring the bottle opening rate.In the medium and long term, the implementation of direct sales channels is conducive to Moutai’s terminal control, profit distribution and the convenience of consumer purchases, which really benefits the company’s long-term development. Catalysts for advanced performance: Ex-factory price adjustments Core assumptions Risk: Economic downturn affects overall demand for high-end wines

Hengli Hydraulics (601100): Cycle + growth logic continues to deliver on the long-term growth of the hydraulic faucet

Hengli Hydraulics (601100): “Cycle + growth” logic continues to deliver on the long-term growth of the hydraulic faucet

The main points of the report describe the company’s release of the 2018 annual report and the 2019 quarterly report: 2018 actually achieved revenue 42.

110,000 yuan, an increase of 50.

65%, net profit attributable to mother 8.

3.7 billion, an increase of 119.

05%; 2019Q1 achieved revenue of 15.

6.9 billion yuan, an increase of 61.

63%, net profit attributable to mother 3.

2.6 billion, an increase of 108.

13%.

  Event 杭州夜网论坛 comment The dual resonance of the “cycle + growth” business helped the company’s performance continue to grow rapidly.

The growth of the company’s various segments is frequent, and in terms of products, the sales volume of internal excavator cylinders is 41.

350,000, an increase of about 51%, achieving revenue of 18.

1.1 billion, an increase of about 57%. Based on the sales volume of excavators in 18 years, the company ‘s market share of excavator cylinders increased by about 2 pct to 51%. Non-standard cylinders were gradually affected by the adjustment of production capacity to excavator cylinders, and their revenue gradually increased.

US $ 4.4 billion, a slight increase of about 10% over the past ten years, of which, shield machine cylinder revenue3.

The 4.4 billion yuan fell by about 28%, and the lifting series of 成都桑拿网 oil cylinders benefited from the prosperity of the overseas market and the company’s cooperation with high-quality customers such as Manitowoc, Snorkel, JLG, and its revenue increased significantly by 214% to 5.

9.7 billion; the market share of small digging pump valves rose to about 30%, and the large and large digging pump valves accelerated their volume, resulting in pump valve revenue4.

79 trillion, an increase of about 92%, the average, hydraulic systems, cylinder accessories and castings also increased significantly.

Looking at the first quarter, the sales volume of beneficiary excavators continued to increase rapidly and the market share of leading companies increased significantly. The company ‘s market share of excavator cylinders should be further increased. The output of Zhongda excavator pump valves was rapidly increased, and Q1 results were released more than expected.

  Scale effects and optimization of product structure are expected to drive the company’s future profitability.

The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin increased by approximately 3 in 2018 in the short term.

76pct to 36.

58%, of which excavator oil cylinder, non-standard oil cylinder, hydraulic pump valve are raised by 2 each time.

55, 3.

34, 11.

09pct to 41.

35%, 35.

07% and 29.

66%, with the scale effect, especially the rapid growth of the scale of revenue after the pumping of the Zhongda pumping valve, the overall gross profit margin still has room for improvement.

In addition, the company’s three fees have been further reduced, and its 18-year net interest rate has continued to increase ROE.

  The boom in the excavator industry continued, the market share of excavator pump valves continued to increase, and new non-standard pump valves and motors injected continuous growth momentum.

Real estate stabilized, infrastructure increased, environmental protection and the release of updates promoted the continued prosperity of the industry. The company bound with leading customers, and the excavator cylinders gradually continued to benefit from the steady increase in the market share of the leading market. At the same time, as the production capacity of Zhongda’s pump valves approached full capacity, 19 Annual pump valve revenue is expected to double. According to our calculations, the domestic market for excavator pump valves exceeds USD 7 billion. In the future, the company ‘s pump valve market share will still increase; therefore, the company will expand non-standard pump valve development efforts.The developed 6-50t class excavator rotary motor was installed and verified at the main engine factory, and gradually made contributions in 19 years.

Emerging businesses are expected to help companies cross the cycle.

  Optimistic about the company’s long-term growth ability as a core component company.

It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers will be 11-21 in 19-21.

91, 14.

87 and 16.

44 ppm, with the latest equity and current sustainable calculations, EPS is 1 respectively.

35, 1.69 and 1.

86 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 23, 18 and 17 times, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: 1) Significant increase in infrastructure and land growth; 2) The company’s capacity release is less than expected; 3) China-US trade talks progress is less than expected; 4) Raw material prices increase.